Can I Retire?

Methodology

Overview

This retirement calculator uses a deterministic model to project portfolio values over time based on user inputs. The model assumes constant returns and inflation rates, providing a simplified view of retirement planning.

Calculation Method

Pre-Retirement Phase

From your current age until retirement age, the calculator assumes your portfolio grows annually based on the expected return rate. No withdrawals are made during this phase.

Post-Retirement Phase

From retirement age until life expectancy (or portfolio depletion), the calculator applies investment returns annually and subtracts your annual spending. Spending is adjusted each year for inflation.

Formulas

Balance(t) = Balance(t-1) × (1 + returnRate) - Spending(t)

Spending(t) = Spending(t-1) × (1 + inflationRate)

Assumptions

Constant Returns

The model assumes a constant annual return rate. In reality, investment returns vary significantly year to year. This does not account for market volatility, bear markets, or sequence of returns risk.

Constant Inflation

Inflation is assumed to be constant at the specified rate. Actual inflation varies over time and can significantly impact purchasing power in retirement.

Spending Patterns

The model assumes spending increases only with inflation. It does not account for changes in spending patterns, major one-time expenses, healthcare costs, or other factors that typically affect retirement spending.

No External Income

The model does not include Social Security, pension income, part-time work, or other income sources that many retirees rely on.

No Taxes

The model does not account for taxes on investment returns or withdrawals. Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction and account type.

Limitations

  • This is a simplified model and should not be used as the sole basis for financial decisions
  • It does not account for market volatility or sequence of returns risk
  • It assumes constant returns and inflation, which is unrealistic
  • It does not include taxes, fees, or transaction costs
  • It does not account for changes in health status or healthcare costs
  • It does not consider changes in government policy or tax regimes
  • It assumes you will live to the specified life expectancy
  • It does not account for inheritance or windfall events

Recommended Use

This calculator is best used as a starting point for retirement planning. It can help you understand the relationship between savings, spending, and retirement timing. However, you should:

  • Consult with a qualified financial advisor for personalized advice
  • Consider using more sophisticated models that account for market volatility
  • Plan for a range of scenarios, not just the average case
  • Review and update your plan regularly as circumstances change
  • Consider the impact of taxes, fees, and healthcare costs

Disclaimer

This calculator is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The projections are based on the inputs and assumptions provided and should not be relied upon for making financial decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making retirement decisions.